About this tool and its assumptions
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Browse all toolsCareer Half-Life Calculator
Five subjective factors, a visible formula and questions to help you examine your work.
An illustrative rubric.
Earlier editions used a year label without a validated time interpretation.
Free. 90 seconds. 5 questions. No signup.
Visible assumptions and questions to compare with actual task evidence.
A preserved score calculated from five subjective factors. It does not measure when your role will be automated.
Three rubric buckets for comparing assumptions. Their cutoffs are chosen, not calibrated against job outcomes.
What to do next — tuned to your function, seniority, and how much of your work already runs through AI.
This rubric assumes more AI use means more exposure. Test that assumption: AI use can also complement human work.
No. The base years and multipliers are editorial assumptions, not estimates calibrated to longitudinal job outcomes. No confidence interval or job-loss probability is available.
The model assigns a lower multiplier to more AI use. That is a debatable assumption, not evidence that using AI makes you replaceable. Consider whether AI substitutes for or complements your tasks.
The rubric weights management and senior individual contributors differently. It cannot establish that managers are more exposed; inspect your actual responsibilities and organizational constraints.
Answers stay in the current page's memory. Finishing does not add them to the address. You can explicitly choose to include your five answer codes in a shared link; anyone receiving that link can read them. Starting over clears an existing input link from the current address.