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Decision guide · Startup runway & founder finances

How to calculate startup runway without hiding the assumptions

The basic estimate is available cash divided by monthly net cash burn. Its usefulness depends on what you put in those two numbers. A month-by-month forecast is needed when the timing of receipts and payments matters.

Founder Reality resource · Updated

Establish what cash is available

Start with spendable cash and cash equivalents. Identify restricted money and amounts already committed to taxes, debt or other obligations. Keep expected fundraising and unsigned sales separate from cash in the bank.

A founder's household savings are not automatically business cash. If you plan to contribute them, show the transfer in both forecasts. If you reserve an emergency buffer, remove it from available cash once, rather than deducting it again elsewhere.

Calculate monthly net cash burn

Gross burn is cash going out. Net burn subtracts cash coming in. Use a consistent period and include the recurring and irregular costs that belong to that period. Revenue booked in accounts is not necessarily a payment received.

Worked example: $60,000 of available cash, $5,000 of monthly outflows and $2,000 of monthly receipts imply $3,000 of net burn and 20 months of runway if those amounts stay constant. With no receipts, the same cash lasts 12 months. These are hypothetical scenarios, not benchmarks.

Check timing and reopen the decision

Build a cash forecast that places payments in the week or month they arrive. A positive annual forecast can still contain a period with insufficient cash. BDC describes a rolling 13-week forecast as one way to examine that timing.

Compare the base case with a delayed customer payment or a known cost increase. State which assumption changed and what action the new forecast would trigger. If net burn is zero or negative, the static estimate has no depletion date under those assumptions; it does not mean the business can never run out of cash.

  • Separate actual cash from anticipated receipts
  • Reserve taxes and buffers once
  • Record a decision point before the cash boundary

Decision worksheet

Copy these prompts into your notes. Keep the answers and the date so you can revisit what changed.

Available cash
What is spendable today after explicit commitments and reserves?
Net burn
What cash leaves and arrives each month? Which amounts vary?
Timing risk
What happens if the largest receipt arrives one month late?
Decision boundary
At what cash balance will I revise the plan, and who needs to know?

Reference material

Use your own numbers

From the field

Personal accounts behind the questions. Each essay reflects when it was written.

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